at US Foods in Rosemont, Illinois, United States
Job Description
ARE YOU A CURRENT US FOODS EMPLOYEE? PLEASE APPLY DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR INTERNAL WORKDAY CAREER SITE.
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BASIC PURPOSE
Lead and oversee a team of statistical forecasters and collectively drive all statistical forecasting within the planning system (Blue Yonder Supply Chain Planning & Optimization (SCPO)) – including demand segmentation, history review, best fit model selection, seasonality profile optimization, and high-quality system forecast generation.
Ensure that the statistical forecasting team is generating a high-quality system forecast with correctly established demand history, SCPO parameters and tuned forecast models.
Lead team to continually improve system forecast accuracy and improve when and how manual enrichment occurs while driving effective collaboration with the forecast enrichment team. Develop and maintain a higher-level understanding of forecasting models among statistical forecasting team and system capabilities to support proper application and resulting system forecast accuracy. Help build, mentor, and coach a high performing team and represent them in annual performance discussions.
Flexible Work Policy: The Sr. Manager, Statistical Forecasting position has been segmented as Hybrid, meaning the work is a combination of onsite (2 days per week) and virtual (3 days per week). This position is based out of our corporate headquarters in Rosemont, IL
ESSENTIAL RESPONSIBILITIES
I. Demand segmentation & forecasting strategy:
Own demand segmentation and help establish forecasting policies for companywide demand. Additionally, help identify and bring best in class forecast modeling techniques.
- Demand segmentation: Continually assess and improve the demand segmentation framework to determine companywide approach to forecasting of different demand types (e.g., high volume, low volume, high volatility, seasonal, specific customers, segments)
- Forecasting Strategy: Identify, action, and collaborate on changes to demand strategy relative market and business changes, including demand pattern changes, seasonal influences and shifts in business focus
- Forecasting policies: Shape and refine forecasting policies to support business needs and system capabilities.
- Forecast model usage & back testing: Help identify, assess and implement best in class forecast models & techniques for different demand types; conduct back testing regularly to refine approaches
II. System forecast generation:
Oversee all system forecast generation activities within the company.
- Demand Forecasting units (DFU) / demand history cleanse: Oversee statistical forecasting team on demand history cleansing and restatement tasks to ensure optimal rigor in placing demand history into SCPO
- Model selection and tuning: Oversee statistical forecasting team as they conduct forecast model comparison, selection, and ongoing tuning for assigned DFUs
- History transfers for new item setup: Ensure new items have their demand histories accurately identified, tagged, and transferred during item transitions
- Seasonality profiles: Implement clear methodologies on how seasonality is managed within the company and work with statistical forecasting team to correctly create and apply the profiles across the DFUs
- System forecast finalization: On a monthly basis, review and finalize system forecast (52-week outlook) for the entire business. Work with the forecast enrichment leader to resolve any queries or forecast irregularities
III. Forecast performance management:
Oversee maintenance and improvement of system forecast performance across the company.
- Monitor and root-cause key forecast metrics: Shape process and oversee active tracking, monitoring and root-cause forecast metrics at a granular level
o Statistical forecast accuracy: across all DFU dimensions – time, category, region, channel
o Statistical forecast bias: across all DFU dimensions – time, category, region, channel
- Track and act on forecast value add metrics: Oversee all manual forecast enrichments made on system forecast improve the eventual forecast accuracy
o System forecast value add: Track forecast value add (impact on accuracy from forecast enrichments) across all DFU dimensions – time, category, region, channel – and optimize manual forecast interventions
IV. Functional collaboration & forecast issue troubleshooting:
Lead team to drive rapidly resolution of forecast related issues escalated by forecast enrichment teams.
- Resolve forecast issues: Collaborate closely with forecast enrichment leader to resolve forecast issues (accuracy, bias, value add) related to system forecast. Identify approaches on how to systematically model forecast elements needing excessive manual interventions for the enrichment team. Collaborate on best practices with forecast enrichment techniques in relation to long term system forecast accuracy and history management.
- Resolve SCPO demand planning module issues: Collaborate closely with SCPO experts (internal / external) and Supply Chain IT team to resolve key challenges related to SCPO functionality
- Demand data integrity challenges: Collaborate closely with replenishment support sub-team to resolve demand history challenges & co-develop audit procedures to identify demand history data issues
- Systems enhancements roadmap: Drive roadmap for Blue Yonder SCPO enhancements and prioritization
V. Team leadership:
Manage a team of Senior Demand Planners. Specifically:
- Ensure smooth coordination and information flow within the entire demand planning team (statistical forecasting team and the forecast enrichment team)
- Build a strong culture of customer service orientation, collaboration, performance, and continuous improvement within the team
- Provide adequate coaching and process guidance to team; when needed, work closely with Replenishment leadership to develop the required capabilities within the team
- Represent the team on regular performance evaluations and help build strong talent pipeline
- Provide regular 1×1 feedback to team based on cross-functional inputs
VI. Process & continuous improvement:
Drive process consistency and build strong competencies within the demand planning team.
- Subject matter expertise: Assume SME role in SCPO forecasting and help build forecast approaches and process playbooks; conduct trainings for the statistical forecasting team
- Thought leadership: Research, assess and bring latest forecasting techniques and analytical methods to company. Scan published material and white papers, network with other statistical forecasting peers, attend conferences, and keep abreast of latest developments within the forecasting space
- Continuous improvement: Share the team’s current challenges, operational learnings, and process improvement opportunities with the Replenishment Excellence (RE) leadership group and brainstorm ways to address forecasting issues
- Systems trust & reliance: Drive high reliance, trust and adoption of SCPO generated forecasts within company. Work with Replenishment leadership to address challenges regarding adoption
- Competency development: Identify required process, analytics, and system training needs within the team; work with replenishment leadership to co-develop those competencies and bring those trainings to the team
SUPERVISION:
- Responsible for a team of Senior Demand Planners
RELATIONSHIPS
This role sits within the Supply Chain – Replenishment function, and it is part of the Replenishment Excellence team. Given the cross-functional nature of this role, there is a need to build and maintain communications with multiple functions within the company.
- Replenishment Excellence Leaders and Peers: Interact with the Replenishment Excellence leader on a frequent basis. In addition, extensively interact with peers within o
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